Talk:Heavy Moldy Bag/Drop rate

What does this record?

Is this recording how many of each item drops? Or just whether it drops or not (since only one type of item drops at a time). The problem is that there is a big economic difference between 1 scrap of gossamer and 2 -- and that will affect whether purchasing bags are a good financial investment or not. So far, it seems to me that 3 scraps of silk are a lot more likely than 2 scraps of gossamer.

On an unrelated note, the table doesn't account for coin, which sometimes drops along with another item.75.37.20.28 09:02, 28 December 2012 (UTC)

It's number of times the bag is opened and that any quantity of that item is the result. The coins are pretty irrelevant. Manifold 17:20, 28 December 2012 (UTC)

Why are we recording 1 scrap of gossamer the same as 2 scraps? How does that help determine whether the bags are reasonably priced on the TP or not? And if that's not the reason for recording drop rates, what is the reason? Further, that system makes it much harder to get the measurements right. Manually recording each drop means a chance of error on every bag and every item type, while recording total units before & after for even 250 bags means only a chance of error for the item type. Plus, all anyone has to do is write down the amounts they see in inventory, which is less likely to result in miscounting than keeping track of each drop. 75.37.20.28 02:05, 2 January 2013 (UTC)

Dr Ishmael seemed to think this was the appropriate way to go, and I wasn't interested in arguing because setting up these pages is enough of a hassle as it is, especially since I planned to make dozens. I assume(d) that the different quantities are equally distributed, and the template can't handle more than 25 items currently, I assumed partly because the makers never thought anyone would record package data in such a way. I also knew someone would object either way. I took this "project" slowly so I could make sure I wasn't doing anything wrong, tried to get input from people, but it's all become more of a hassle than it's worth to me. I opened my hundreds of various bags today, recording the (instances of any quantity) results with the intention of eventually making the drop research pages, so if those pages ever get made and people decide to record data that way, I'll add that info, otherwise, I'll stop recording my package info for now. Anyone is free to do whatever they wish with my recorded data and this page as they wish if they want to record it a different way. Manifold 02:21, 2 January 2013 (UTC)

You don't care about how much of an item you get, you care how often you get it. We're assuming you have an equal chance at any possible amount. If you want to investigate whether the amounts have a specific distribution, start another table. We are only interested in the chance of getting any one item. I don't get the anon's second point, human error in recording will be human error.--Relyk ~ talk > 03:14, 2 January 2013 (UTC)

I see two conflicting goals here. What I thought we were doing with these drop rate tables, and I think Manifold and Relyk agree with this, was attempting to determine the chances of getting the different possible items out of a package, regardless of how many of them you get. The IP's goal is to determine the average value of the package's contents, regardless of what the contents actually are. As Manifold pointed out, the templates can only handle 25 entries at this time, and expanding on that would be troublesome. In my opinion, the best overall solution to benefit everyone would be to use an actual spreadsheet application, like Google Docs, instead of manhandling our poor parser functions to force them to perform complex calculations they were never intended for. —Dr Ishmael 03:36, 2 January 2013 (UTC)

We could add an amount parameter for each variable, but you'll still be displaying the same chance to get an item. Only now you get to display the average to display on yet another line, even if there isn't a range of drops. It's not worth the effort at all to implement and the wikicode isn't designed for it, messing around with the SDR template is already stupid tedious because it uses a pseudo-array to track variables.--Relyk ~ talk > 03:56, 2 January 2013 (UTC)

I am computing if it is better to sell the bags or the crap in them... results tomorrow. -- RustySpanner

... and here it is. Using AH values as of 20130115 the items from the moldy bag will fetch, on average, 199.3c per bag. So at the moldy bag rate of 199c per bag... Wholly crap, it does not make much difference. Save the effort and sell the bags. If you need the matts you are better to open the bags... as the AH buy amounts can be a lot higher than the sell amounts. btw, I have 1,200 of them as of today -- RustySpanner

... A couple problems come to mind with this sheet. (1) The total is not correct, it is adding my items and not referencing the number of bags actually opened. (2) There is no reference as the amount of $$$ one also gets from the bags. -- RustySpanner

Early anaylsis

It looks to me like:

• T5 materials have 4-5% chance (people have been bad with correctly logging the data for silk scraps)
• T6 materials have 1-2% chance (bad data for gossamer too - multiple volume =! multiple frequency)

-Chieftain Alex 12:26, 20 February 2013 (UTC)

Actually leather, silk and gossamer might have a higher drop chance. -Chieftain Alex 12:29, 20 February 2013 (UTC)

Giant Eye drop calculation

looks like it's a little broken, 17/15400 is around 0.0011% not 0.11% 82.69.137.180 11:35, 18 March 2013 (UTC)

Not too used to working with wiki..

But would like to have my results listed somehow; opened 1000 bags just now and got the following: 276 Silk Scraps, 212 Thick Leather Sections, 56 Hardened Leather Sections, 93 Gossamer Scraps, 67 Large Fangs, 62 Large Claws, 65 Potent Venom Sacs, 64 Intricate Totems, 73 Vials of Potent Blood, 53 Large Bones, 77 Large Scales, 56 Piles of Incandescent Dust, 28 Vials of Powerful Blood, 16 Armored Scales, 29 Vicious Fangs, 24 Elaborate Totems, 20 Vicious Claws, 12 Ancient Bones, 9 Powerful Venom Sacs, 10 Piles of Crystalline Dust, 14 Piles of Vile Essence and 2 Piles of Putrid Essence. To be honest, I don't mind if nobody wants to add this to the page, but I'd probably mess the template or something if I were to try it myself.

Keeping my info

Due to the pointless goal of this page, I'll be putting my data on a personal spreadsheet. Drop quantity is WAY more important than drop rate with these bags, it's not like it drops a mini. TheLastHobbit (talk) 03:58, 22 September 2013 (UTC)

Good to know, but this talk page isn't the place for feedback. You may complain on {{SDRH}} if you wish.--Relyk ~ talk < 05:45, 22 September 2013 (UTC)

Coins...

Why does nobody capture coins? (rhetorical question) Doing my own research with 2750 bags, I get a measure of 3.1982 coins/bag (still need to figure out the error bars, but I figure i'm within 3%) 184.96.163.36 18:33, 5 November 2016 (UTC)

Vicious Fangs

I believe Enko had a typo when entering the Vicious Fangs data. It is the exact same number as Large Fangs and very inflated for a t6 mat. Gaby (talk) 18:06, 17 September 2020 (UTC)