User:SarielV/Statistics/LotF

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Background[edit]

The Netherforgers [SamJ] was an idea I had for a guild devoted to studying the Mystic Forge. With guilds devoted to dungeons, locations, and map metas, it seemed natural that there'd be interest in working out how the most popular RNG system in the game works. That is as far as that idea got. It quickly became evident that there was a lot of interest in Mystic Forge combinations, but no one was actually interested in doing the work and experimentation. Plus the data would be extremely sensitive to sabotage, and any interesting findings would probably be worth keeping secret. Better to keep it as a personal project.

However, I had little in the way of in-game resources, so it became necessary to exercise every out-of-game resource available. Rather than blindly delve into throwing crap into the forge, I'd lay out everything I knew or observed about it and try to extrapolate patterns and plans of attack from there.

At the time I was bending my efforts towards finding the combination for Reaper of Souls, which I had determined as the only remaining weapon to be found. The rules I had laid out might have gotten me there eventually but the search space was too big to cover. Currently, my estimation is there are no more weapon combinations to be found, but there have been a few items added which are produced by random combinations (Halloween weapons, Aetherized weapons). This segment of results is played out, and it will remain that way until at least the next expansion. If that is all you wanted to know, you're free to go on with your day.

Edit: It seems like ArenaNet has decided to add new combinations as holiday bonuses. These have included Mini Failed Attempt, Sikandar, Antonina, the Eggnog Helmet, and Touch of Fog.

Law of Warning[edit]

The following mixes empirical results with supposition. The forge works with patterns as much as it does specific combinations, and it is free to set its own arbitrary rules. Bugs in operation can also give a result that should never be produced, as this has apparently happened before. As such, these laws are guidelines, with only my assertion that they are true to the best of my observation.

Laws of Inputs[edit]

  1. The forge always takes four components.
    1. A component can be a single item or a stack of items.
    2. The size of stack required for stackable items depends on the specific combination.
    3. A component with charges (e.g. Salvage Kit) must have full charges.
  2. Items that cannot be used in the forge will not show up in the forge UI.
  3. The forge can potentially accept any item a character can hold.
    1. Classes of known inputs include:
      1. Weapons
      2. Armor pieces
      3. Trinkets
      4. Upgrade components (gems, jewels, marks, medallions, doubloons, crests, runes, sigils, relics)
      5. Consumables (food/utility, fractal weapon skins)
      6. Salvage items
      7. Minis
      8. Trophies (so-called Mystic Items)
      9. Dyes (known, unidentified, and unidentified of a specific color)
  4. An item can be marked in the API as disallowed in the forge (Tag: NoMysticForge).
    1. An item that is not marked NoMysticForge is not necessarily eligible.
  5. Forge eligibility of any component can change at any time.
  6. Forge eligibility of known combinations can be invalidated at any time.
  7. Potential combinations for a particular item or set of items are supposed to be highlighted as they are entered into the forge. In actual practice, this does not always happen, whether due to a bug in the templating code or the inability of the server to process all the possible combinations in the time it is given. Entering components in a different order may reveal a combination not shown when using a previous compatible component.

Laws of Outputs[edit]

  1. The forge can potentially produce any item in the item database.
    1. The forge CANNOT produce an item that is NOT in the item database.
    2. Classes of known outputs include
      1. Trinkets
      2. Tonics
      3. Upgrade components, including
        1. Gemstones
        2. Doubloons
        3. Sigils and Runes
        4. Dungeon Sigils and Runes
        5. Infusions
      4. Crafting Materials
      5. Recipes
      6. Gear, including
        1. Dropped gear
        2. Karma gear
        3. Crafted gear
        4. Weaponsmith and Armorsmith gear
      7. Minis
      8. Dyes
      9. Services (auto-consuming items, particularly for collections, e.g. Turai's Artifact)
    3. Classes of items NOT produced by the forge
      1. WvW gear (exception Mistforged weapons)
      2. PvP gear
      3. Dungeon gear
      4. Personal Story reward gear
      5. Raid gear
      6. Skin consumables (in nearly all cases, there is an existing piece of gear with the same skin that could be supplied instead.)
      7. Crafted sigils and runes
      8. Jewels
      9. Consumables (food/utility)
      10. Relics (likely only a matter of time)
      11. Most items from the previous list that were added to the item database following launch
        1. Items from expansions

Laws of Combinations[edit]

  1. Specific combinations consist of four forge components that always produce the exact same result when combined.
  2. Random combinations consist of any four forge eligible components that fit a particular template.
    1. Random combinations produce a random result within parameters set by the inputs.
    2. Random combinations can now rarely result in something special (Halloween weapons, Aetherized weapons, Amalgamated Gemstones).
    3. The general theme of random combinations is that Like produces Like - i.e. four components of a particular item type produce an item of the same type.
      1. The degree of likeness will generally impact the resulting item type.
  3. Secret combinations are specific combinations undivulged by ArenaNet.
    1. Secret combinations may be made multiple times if the forger has the components.
    2. An item that can only be obtained once on an account will never be part of a Secret combination.
      1. An item that can only be obtained once on an account that can be used in a specific combination must be divulged as being such. This is a postulate of fairness, without which a player could be forever locked out of using said item to its potential.
    3. The existence or nonexistence of secret combinations is unknown.
      1. The best and the brightest of Guild Wars 2, with more resources than you, have examined the forge for secret combinations for years. Thousands look at the forge every day with their current inventory available for checking. For a secret combination to exist, it must consist of components that evade this kind of detection.
        1. It may contain at least one component that is relatively new and untested.
        2. It may contain components that the average player never purchases.
        3. It may contain components that the average player never brings to the forge (immediately consumed or otherwise used).
        4. It may contain components that previously were unforgeable.
        5. It may contain components that are known to be forgeable and assumed to be completely explored. This is the least likely, as known forgeables are among the first items checked when new secret combinations become evident.

Laws of Random Combinations[edit]

  1. The typical template of a random combination is any 4 of the same item type in produces a random item of the same type.
    1. Sigils
      1. Any four sigils of the same rarity (masterwork or rare only) can be combined to produce a sigil of the same rarity.
      2. There is a small chance that the produced sigil will be upgraded one step (minor to major, major to superior). The resulting sigil is still of a random type.
      3. The resulting sigil must be of a type available from launch, as this list has never been updated. There is no restriction on the input.
    2. Runes
      1. Any four runes of the same rarity (masterwork or rare only) can be combined to produce a rune of the same rarity.
      2. There is a small chance that the produced rune will be upgraded one step (minor to major, major to superior). The resulting rune is still of a random type.
      3. The resulting rune must be of a type available from launch, as this list has never been updated. There is no restriction on the input.
    3. Dyes
      1. Any four identified dyes of the same rarity may be combined to produce a dye of the same rarity.
      2. There is a small chance that the produced dye will be upgraded one step in rarity. The resulting dye will still be a random color.
        1. Empyrical results of forging masterwork dyes shows the upgrade percentage at that tier is 20%.
      3. The resulting dye must be of a type available from launch, as this list has never been updated.
      4. Unidentified Dyes (unspecified or of particular hues) may not be used in random combinations.
        1. Any four rare Unidentified Dyes of particular hues may be combined in the forge to make an Unidentified Dye.
    4. Minis
      1. Any four minis from Sets 1, 2, or 3 of the same rarity may be combined to produce a mini of the same rarity.
        1. These minis can be of any rarity up to Rare.
        2. Other minis (Exotic, or from other sources) generally are not allowed to be used in random combinations, but there are exceptions.
      2. The resulting mini will always be from Sets 1, 2 or 3.
        1. The resulting mini's set does not depend upon the inputs' set(s). e.g. Four Set 1 minis can produce a mini from any set.
      3. There is a small chance that the produced mini will be upgraded one step in rarity (fine to masterwork to major, masterwork to rare, rare to exotic). The resulting mini is still random and from Sets 1, 2 or 3.
    5. Upgrades [verification requested]
      1. Four upgrades from the list of Gemstones, Marks, and Doubloons may be combined to produce a random Gemstone, Mark or Doubloon.
        1. Upgrades by this definition must be insertable into gear. Quartz crystals and similar are not insertable and thus are not eligible for random combinations.
      2. Only upgrades of the same rarity may be used in a random combination.
      3. The resulting upgrade will be of a level that is roughly the average of the inputs.
      4. The resulting upgrade rarity may be a different than the inputs' rarity. With combinations involving Doubloons, this can result in a downgrade to fair or masterwork, depending on the output level.
      5. There is a small chance that the produced upgrade will be upgraded in level and or rarity. The output range adjustment can be fairly wide (+20 verified, maybe more).
        1. Doubloons can be produced from fair rarity inputs in this way.
      6. An Amalgamated Gemstone can be produced by a combination of four orbs. A combination of four Tier 5 Upgrades (shards, medallions) may produce an Amalgamated Gemstone if the result is upgraded.
        1. An Amalgamated Gemstone may be a possible result of forging four doubloons or a mixture of doubloons and orbs (unverified). This is generally a waste of money, as low level Doubloons most often produce fair upgrades.
      7. (Aside from an Amalgamated Gemstone), the resulting Upgrade must be of a type available from launch, as this list has never been updated (i.e. Medallions/Crests of the Assassin cannot be made in this way, nor can Azurite, Ambrite, Quartz or gemstones from any expansion). There is no restriction on the input.
      8. Jewels are allowed in the forge, but they are not used in random combinations. No one knows what they work with.
      9. Relics are allowed in the forge following the 3/5/24 update, but they are not used in random combinations. No one knows what they work with.
        1. Exception: Exquisite Snowflakes are now used in the forge to produce Snowball Minis.
    6. Gear
      1. Gear consists of four classes: Armor, Weapons, Trinkets, and Waterbreathers.
        1. Each class of Gear contains several types.
          1. Types of weapons include: axe, sword, longbow, etc.
          2. Types of armor include: chest, helmet, glove, etc.
          3. Types of trinkets include: amulet, accessory, ring, back.
          4. Waterbreathers typically are considered a type of armor, but tend to break the rules.
      2. Four pieces of Gear may be combined to produce a random piece of Gear.
      3. All four inputs must be of the same rarity.
        1. For inputs with less than Exotic rarity, any four pieces of gear may be used as inputs.
        2. For inputs of Exotic rarity, all four pieces must be of the same class (Weapons, Armor, or Trinkets. Waterbreathers are considered Armor for this purpose [verification requested]).
        3. Inputs of Ascended or Legendary rarity are not used in random combinations.
      4. Random combinations with gear follow a principle of like produces like.
        1. A combination of four inputs with at least two different classes will produce an output of a random class.
        2. A combination of four weapons will produce a weapon.
          1. A combination of four weapons of the same type will produce a weapon of the same type.
          2. A combination of 4 rare weapons may produce a special weapon (e.g. Scythe, Ghastly Grinning Shield, Aetherized weapons, etc.) with the frequency of a precursor. Mixing rare weapons and armor may have the same result, but this is unproven and will likely remain so.
        3. A combination of four pieces of armor will produce a piece of armor.
          1. A combination of four pieces of armor of the same type and weight will produce a piece of armor of the same type and weight.
          2. A combination of four pieces of armor of the same weight but different types will produce a piece of armor of a random weight and type.
        4. A combination of four trinkets will produce a trinket.
          1. A combination of four trinkets of the same type will produce a random type of trinket.
          2. PoF trinkets do not combine with other trinkets and thus cannot be used in random combinations. What they do combine with is unknown.
        5. Waterbreathers are considered a random piece of armor.
      5. The result of a random Gear combination follows several rules.
        1. The rarity of the result will be the same rarity as the inputs.
          1. There is a small chance that the rarity will be upgraded by one step, if the inputs are not Exotic.
          2. Combinations of Exotics will never result in an upgrade.
        2. The level of the resulting item will be equal to (the average of the levels of the inputs) plus (a random number between 0 and about 12).
          1. If the resulting level would be greater than ~78, the level will instead be randomized to a number between 74 and 80.
          2. If the resulting item's rarity is upgraded, and the resulting level is below the minimum level for an item of that rarity, the level will be boosted to the minimum. Masterwork items are minimum level 14. Rare items are minimum level 39.
      6. The resulting item must be an item in the item database.
        1. Usage of karma gear in the combination seems to favor receiving a piece of karma gear in return.
        2. Items added after launch cannot be produced by random combinations (exception: replacements for magic-find Gear).

Laws of Bulk Recipes[edit]

  1. Bulk Recipes may be generated by inputting certain specific combinations.
    1. Feasts
      1. Feast recipes are generated by the Mystic Forge in exchange for the following:
        1. Bottles of Elonian Wine
        2. Mystic Coins
        3. Crystals
        4. A stack of 10 food items.
      2. Only meals, snacks, soups, and desserts available from launch can be used in the forge to generate a bulk recipe.
        1. Not all food items can be turned into feasts. See Feast (food) for a complete list.
        2. Certain post-launch food items have feast recipes. These are generally available for purchase or come from containers, and thus are not created by the Forge.
      3. Ascended feasts are discovered and not produced by the Mystic Forge.
    2. Armor
      1. Bulk armor recipes are generated by the Mystic Forge in exchange for the following:
        1. Bottles of Elonian Wine
        2. Mystic Coins
        3. Crystals
        4. One piece of crafted chest armor with matching weight and stats as the desired recipe
      2. Only Exalted, Emblazoned, and Draconic chest armor with craftable insignias available from launch can be used in the forge to generate a bulk recipe.
        1. For level 80 exotic armor, this includes Assassin's, Berzerker's Carrion, Cleric's, Knight's, Rampager's, and Valkyrie stats.
        2. All lower level and rarity crafted chest armor available from launch can be used to create bulk recipes.
        3. Additionally, Giver's and Apothecary's chest armor may be used in the Forge to generate a bulk recipe.
        4. Zealot's and Celestial armor have bulk recipes available from other means.
        5. Other level 80 crafted exotic chest pieces may not be used to create bulk recipes.
          1. This is confirmed for Bringer's, Cavalier's, Dire, Magi's, Rabid, Soldier's, Trailblazer's, Wanderer's.

Laws of Stat Change[edit]

  1. It is possible to use the Forge to convert the statistics on an ascended weapon or piece of armor from one prefix to another. This is a way to create gear with stats from HoT or PoF that is often less expensive than straight crafting.
    1. The combination of items required include:
      1. The original ascended weapon or armor piece.
        1. Ascended gear with non-standard skins (e.g. Weapons of the Sunless, Great Destroyer's Talon) are typically eligible for stat swapping.
          1. Variations of Caladbolg may have their stats reset by paying Ridhais. This does not involve the Forge.
          2. Ascended precursors may be eligible for stat swapping, but this will likely destroy the precursor as well as any chance of making the associated legendary gear. Never attempt this.
        2. Back items and trinkets are not eligible for stat swapping in the forge.
          1. Blood Ruby trinkets available from Scholar Rakka can have their statistics reset to selectable by using a Bloodstone Capacitor. This does not involve the Forge.
      2. An EXOTIC inscription (for weapons) or insignia (for armor) of the prefix you want the gear to have.
        1. Prefixes that have no ascended version are not eligible for stat swapping. Thus, no ascended Giver's gear et al. (no longer true for Giver's, but the law otherwise stands).
        2. Prefixes without inscriptions or insignia are not eligible for stat swapping. Thus, no ascended Captain's gear et al.
        3. An Intact Mosaic may be used in place of an inscription to obtain Grieving stats.
        4. Theoretically, you could use the same prefix of inscription or insignia as the existing one on the original gear.
      3. 5 Globs of Ectoplasm
      4. 1 Anthology of Heroes
    2. The Forge will produce a new ascended item of the same type as the original piece of gear and the prefix of the inscription or insignia used in the forging.
      1. The skin of a new weapon will always be an Antique weapon of the original type with a color appropriate to the new stats.
      2. The skin of a new piece of armor will always be an Illustrious piece of the same type and weight as the original.
      3. Nonstandard skins are not retained.
      4. All upgrades on the original gear are lost forever. They are not transferred to the new item produced by the forge.
        1. Infusions may be safely removed from the original gear by applying an Infusion Extraction Device prior to stat swap.
        2. Runes and Sigils may be safely removed from the original gear by applying an Upgrade Extractor prior to stat swap.
  2. It is also possible to convert the statistics on a cosmetic infusion to one of the other types.
    1. The combination of items required is different for each infusion, but it typically includes:
      1. The original infusion
      2. An Anthology of Heroes
      3. 25 of a Tier 6 trophy crafting material associated with the new stats
        1. Theoretically, the crafting material that produces the same stats as exist in the original infusion will be accepted.
      4. A quantity of one further item
    2. The forge will produce a new cosmetic infusion of the same type as the original infusion and with stats determined by the materials used in the forging.
      1. The original infusion is destroyed in the process, but there don't appear to be any consequences for it.

Laws of the Item Database[edit]

  1. Entries within the item database encompass all potential items usable by players and NPCs.
  2. All item database entries before Heart of Thorns, after Path of Fire, and between each expansion exhibit some amount of structure.
    1. Items existing from launch are grouped together by source or area of use.
    2. Items added between launch and Heart of Thorns, after Path of Fire, and between expansions are largely added chronologically by release. This will also at least loosely group them by source or area of use.
  3. Item entries are rarely changed into new items or deleted, as this is bad practice.
  4. For regional gear (weapons), variables are distributed in specific patterns.
    1. Skin loosely correlates with the region where it is obtained. Orr counts as all regions.
    2. Upgrade correlates to level.
    3. Nomenclature correlates with skin.
    4. Weapon type
    5. Rarity correlates to level.
    6. All Glyphic weapons have a level 80 stat-selectable version thanks to Zinn's Research Supplies.
  5. In random gear, variables are distributed in specific patterns.
    1. Skin
    2. Weapon type, or
    3. Rarity
    4. Upgrade
    5. Nomenclature
    6. Level
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